Is it possible to fold pocket ladies in the fold on the preflop when playing on the final table situation ー analysis

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Translated by order of the educational portal university.poker
Article by David Lappin, Original Source: UPSWING Poker

Nothing in poker bothers the imagination like the final table. You played well for a few hours, got really hot, probably won at least a few all-ins. But when you are at the final table, the importance of each decision increases, as there is a significant jump in payouts for each place. Unfortunately, since the final tables do not happen so often, it can be difficult to practice in such tense situations. How beginners can quickly gain so much necessary experience is described in this article. 

Today's article will tell you about the final table at which I recently played. I had the current 3rd place out of 9 people and, given the jumps in payouts for each place, I needed to show my best game. 

1. Preflop analysis - Part 1: Should I to call or 3 bet after opening the leader chip with UTG

In this hand, I had to make two difficult decisions on the preflop, so let's look at each one separately.

After seeing the open-raise from UTG and the call from UTG+2, I need to make a decision with my pocket ladies on HJ. According to Solver, I should mix my strategy, 3 bet most of the time and sometimes to call. Interestingly, both call and 3-bet yield roughly the same expected value (EV) -as with all the variable-frequency solutions that a solver typically offers.

Let's take a look at the advantages and disadvantages of each:

Advantages of 3bet:
The edge of 3bet is that it better defines my hand for any potential opponent. This helps to simplify decision-making on subsequent streets. This also significantly reduces the likelihood of more calls and post-flop situations when I have to play a hand in a multipot.

Disadvantages of 3bet: 
The disadvantage of 3bet is inflating the pot compared to two players who can knock me out. The ICM crash can't be underestimated right now, which means I need a powerful premium hand if I want to exhibit on the later streets stack-off.

Advantages of the call: 
The edge of the call is that I keep the pot as small as possible in the spot with two players who cover me at the same time. And although the hand will most likely end up in the multipot, I will have a certain hidden power.

Disadvantages of a call: 
The disadvantage of a call is that it will often stimulate more calls, especially those on blinds whose range will be very wide. A hand like a pocket ladies' hand is definitely better played in heads-up with a more well-defined range of the opponent.

Overall, while this is a lower usage option, I like my decision to call.

2. Preflop Analysis Part 2: Should I call or fold in response to all-in

After my call, a lot of things happened. Katoff put the all-in on 19 bb, and UTG made a re-push, covering me.

If UTG and UTG+2 had shifted to Katoff's Push, I would have had an easy call because my hand was ahead of his Push range and I was covering it. But, faced with a problem on the part of the UTG that covers me, my Queens ladies are experiencing tremendous difficulties. If I equalize and lose, I will recover in either 8th or 9th place – a catastrophic loss of equity given my current chip position. It is also worth noting that UTG quickly pushed. Such timing often indicates an easy decision, and therefore, a hand with which the Push is not folded. By itself, this information makes him more inclined to the ace-king and makes pocket aces less likely (because aces will at least consider the possibility of a simple flat call).

So, given these assumptions, are the pocket Queens strong enough to make the call, given the risk?

The short answer is no. The analysis of the solver (in ICM mode) shows that a call with pocket ladies leads to a loss of 350 euros. If you look hypothetically, my stack currently costs ~2500 euros, and doubling it increases its cost only to 3500 euros. Meanwhile, if I equalize and lose, I will end up earning only a few hundred euros. This means that in a straight head-up versus chip-leader I will need to have a 72% advantage to justify all-in. Although this situation is complicated by the presence of a third player, this calculation provides a useful benchmark showing how serious the ICM factor is. To sum up, pocket kings and pocket aces are my only playable hands in this situation, with the latter being an obvious call. But interestingly, the kings earn very little EV (about 10 euros), because they are actually far from the strongest starter, as most players would probably think.

• Handout final: CO shows  UTG shows
   

On the board:                                           

Aces take the main bank, and I fly out in 9th place and get 464 euros (at that time it was more like 0).

3. Summing up 

Understanding ICM is vital if you want to succeed in the changing world of MTT. When it comes to it, most of the money is handed out at the final table, and that's when the effects of ICM affect and distort the range that the player must use. Therefore, one should not underestimate how important it is to study the situations at the final tables taking into account ICM and how this can make you call much more tight than under normal circumstances.

This hand taught me a big lesson and I hope it teaches it to you too.