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Article by Jacke Godshall, Original Source: UPSWING Poker
If you play tournaments, sooner or later you will encounter ICM (Independent Chip Model). This concept plays a key role in the later stages of tournaments, but there is a lot of confusion around it.
In this article, based on the advice of top poker professional Nick Petrangelo, we will analyze:
- how ICM works;
- how to adjust your strategy;
- what mistakes are most often made by players.
1. What is ICM and why is it important?
ICM is a way to estimate the value of your stack in real money relative to the prize pool. In the cache, everything is simple: 10,000 chips = $10,000 cash. Everything is different in tournaments. 10,000 chips can cost much less or more, depending on the prize structure, the number of remaining players and their stacks.
To understand how this works, Nick suggests focusing on three key factors:
- Stack distribution – how even the chips are among the remaining players.
- Payout structure – how much the prizes vary between places.
- Proximity to money – how many players are left before the prize zone.
In the late stages of the tournament, you no longer play just for chips – you play for real money, and your decisions should take this into account.
2. Mistake #1: Thinking of ICM as an exact science
One of the most common mistakes is to think that ICM gives 100% accurate solutions.
In reality, this is more of a guide. Nick emphasizes that in the later stages of the tournament, understanding the big picture is much more important than trying to accurately calculate the EV of each action.
When does ICM become particularly important?
ICM influences strategy throughout the tournament, but peak pressure is achieved at two key points:
- Bubble – when there are only one or two relegations left before the prizes. Here, each fold can significantly increase the value of your stack.
- Final tables – when prize payouts increase dramatically and one wrong decision can cost a lot of money.
Example from Nick:
When there are 19 people left in the tournament, and 18 places are paid, the difference between the 19th and 18th places is huge. One player is eliminated with nothing, and the other is guaranteed to receive several buy-ins.
And closer to the final, the situation is even more interesting:
With a large stack, we don't want to get into a war with another large stack, because we already have a significant expected value (EV). Instead, it is better to press on medium and short stacks.
3. How do you adjust your strategy to take ICM into account?
Now that we've sorted out the theory, let's see what adjustments will help you get the most out of ICM.
Folds can be +EV
In the cash cache, fold = 0 EV. ICM is different. When you fold on a bubble or in front of pajamas, your stack can grow in value due to the relegation of other players. This means that in certain situations, even strong hands should be discarded.
Try to pick up the pots without a showdown
In the later stages of the tournament, it is important not to bring the hand to the opening.
To do this:
- We play secretly-aggressively, especially preflop.
- We avoid protecting the big blind, when we can be crushed by post-flop.
- We increase the size of the raise in situations where we want more folds.
Example from Nick: With a 20 BB stack, you can open 2.5x instead of the standard 2x – this will give us more folds and reduce the likelihood of being on a post-flop.
Adjusting 3-bet
In the later stages of the tournament, 3-bets should be more thoughtful:
- It is better to choose hands with blockers (for example, Ax or Kx).
- Avoid 3-betas with 76s hands as they do not block strong opponent range.
All these adjustments are especially important when the bubble pressure is high.
4. Mistake #2: Binary style game
Many players, having learned about ICM, start playing too extreme strategies:
- Secretly to the point of absurdity – for example, they fold the entire range on a bubble, even when they have good spots for the push.
- Superaggressive with a large stack – too much pressure without taking into account specific situations.
Nick reminds: Every spot is unique. Bubble pressure is dynamic, not static. It's important to strike a balance.
5. Mistake #3: Unconditional faith in ICM calculators
ICM calculators are a useful tool, but not perfect. Why? Because they do not take into account the future possibilities of the game.
For example:
- The calculator may underestimate the value of a huge pot that will give you chip leadership.
- He does not take into account how the dynamic of the final table will change after this all-in.
Therefore, ICM is not a verdict, but only a guideline.
6. Conclusion
ICM is a powerful tool, but you need to use it wisely.
Remember three key points:
- Don't treat ICM as a rigorous mathematical model – it's a landmark, not an exact science.
- Adjust your game: more folds, fewer showdowns, conscious 3-bets.
- Analyze the situation, and do not follow the templates – each tournament is unique.
Use this knowledge and play smart!
