ICM part 3: features of the game with a chiplider stack, in the late stages of tournaments and at tables with hobby players

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Before reading this article, it is recommended to read the first 2 parts about the impact of ICM in tournament poker: What is the ICM factor, FGS factor, bubble factor in tournament poker and How is ICM in tournament poker taken into account in preflop all-in? What are allowances?

1. Features of the game with a chiplider stack

There are situations when we stuff the chip-leader stack into the top 50 or even the top 100 of the tournament, but at the same time we do not reach even the pre-final table. Studying the patterns of these defeats, I concluded for myself that most of the failures were due to the fact that I continued to chase the increase in the stack, taking all-ins in weak-plus situations. Having a big stack, we often dominate the table, our winrate becomes larger, and it is enough for us to play small pots, as well as use the psychological advantage and pressure on other players.

Recommendations:

1. Keep dispersion to a minimum - that is, a minimum of expensive bluff, a minimum of weak-plus exposures, and even medium-plus exposures can be sacrificed in tournaments without knockouts. The big stack needs to be protected, we have enough tournament time to wait for situations with high mathematical expectation to increase the stack. Don't chase even bigger stack growth!
2. The same applies to the game on the pre-final and final table with the chip-leader stack. The game should be neat, the variance is minimized. It is advantageous for us to maximize the use of pressure in inexpensive situations (steal, bluff 3-bet, cbet of flop and turn), but to reduce dispersive exposures on the stack with other players, even very short ones, so as not to allow them to increase their stack until they can no longer resist aggressive preflop pressure. In such situations, we can do fold even in decent plus situations from the point of view of chip-ev. A separate article will be published later about the game on the final tables.
3. In situations where there are several more good aggressive reg players with decent stacks, which cannot be psychologically suppressed and forced to go into the waiting mode of good hands. It is better not to prove to your ego that you are stronger and cooler, but to start playing more restrained and wait - this is often the best strategy in a strong final. Stack allows us to wait.
4. In knockout tournaments, this knowledge also needs to be used, but the fact of having knockouts makes its own adjustments. There will be a separate article and a whole video course on the topic of playing in tournaments with knockouts. 

2. How to play in the late stages of tournaments. Domination over opponents

From my coaching practice, I have drawn many conclusions about which faces are most common among low-limit players. One of them occurs without exaggeration in 95% of my students. And this leak is an overly secret game in the late stage of the tournament.  Players intuitively feel the influence of ICM and understand that the further they go into the tournament, the more expensive their tournament life is. 

These are correct thoughts. But for the vast majority of players, this feeling is so enhanced by the fear of relegation, waiting for the final table with good prizes and uncertainty in their own game that they literally clamp down to an overly secret style in the game. These players intuitively think that this style leads to a decrease in variance. I constantly find in the bases of my students a decrease in open raises, 3bet, a decrease or complete disappearance of barreling, as well as check raises and other techniques related to aggressive actions in the game.

In fact, the exact opposite is true: an overly restrained, nit style of play increases variance in the late stage. 

The math is as follows: going into the thread game, the player begins to miss a lot of winrate. Styles, 3-bet, barreling into a bluff - it all brings chips and thus keeps your stack above the high dispersion threshold.

It is the size of your stack that determines the variance the most:

1. Up to 16BB - very high variance;
2. From 17 to 23BB - high variance;
3. From 24 to 33BB - middle variance;
4. From 34 to 45 - low variance;
5. From 46 - very low variance. 

Therefore, when you earn chips by aggressive actions, your stack is beyond the threshold of high variance more time than that of the thread players. Consequently, the loose-aggressive style reduces dispersion (here I do not mean some negative loose pushes for the entire stack or bad expensive bluff). In the late stage of tournaments, this works doubly well for the reason that most players begin to clamp down, play more tight: fold more on BB versus raise, fold more against 3bet, fold more on cbets and check-raises. 

That is, most players begin to resist the aggressive style less. Most of my students show winrate in the late stage much less than in the middle stage. And according to the law of conservation of energy, if somewhere it has disappeared, then somewhere it has arrived. Where did it arrive? Those who are not afraid to play lousy-aggressive have arrived. This style brings more winrate in the late stage than in the middle and early stage, approximately up to abi30. And it definitely needs to be used. 

3. The strength of the players at the table and their location

Let's look at the power that players have and their location at the tables.

The presence of
hobby players If there are 2-3 or more hobby players at the table, this reduces the variance of the game for us, because they will make expensive mistakes at a distance that create future options for us, in which we get a big winrate in the hands at this table. From the point of view of strategy, it becomes less profitable for us to make loose resteal pushes, or 4-bet pushes against 3bet from reg players on the lower parts of our standard ranges. Our game becomes more accurate, we increase the allowances in any preflop and postflop actions so as not to make dispersive weak-plus decisions.

Strong table
All players are good reg players who do not make serious mistakes in the game. Many players begin to arrange tough cuts in such situations, although in my opinion the standard ABC game will be the best strategy, with a minimum number of attempts to somehow put pressure on the table, create some kind of special image for themselves and so on. Here, an element of the strategy is that strong players often begin to fight among themselves, trying to seize the initiative, thereby rocking the dynamics of the game at the whole table. We, in turn, sit quietly, but as a rule, people do not notice that we have slowed down. We're starting to use it. In this case, the best strategy is patience, playing with your standard ranges, you should not make large allowances. 

Arrangement of players at the table
It is considered more profitable to be in a position for strong players - this gives us more opportunities for lousy-aggressive play. But on weak players, you can be without a position to collect vellya from them with large bets and let them bluff on the river value. As you know, the telephone type of players almost does not bluff, but in the check of the river they like to put in a big bluff as a bluff, if they have not collected any combination.