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Translated by order of the educational portal university.poker
Article by Patrick Harvey, original source: Upswing Poker
In live poker, it is extremely important to act correctly at the stage before entering the prize zone. This article is devoted to what you need to pay attention to in this situation and the 4 most important factors on the bubble in live poker.
1. What is a hard bubble in a live poker tournament
Before moving on to the 4 factors to consider when making decisions on the bubble of an offline poker tournament, I want to briefly touch on what the hard bubble stage means. In tournaments with a small number of participants, a hard bubble is a situation where all the remaining players, with the exception of one, receive money. In a major tournament involving hundreds or thousands of players (such as the World Series of Poker Main Event), a hard bubble can mean that everyone but a few players get paid.
2. Factor # 1: Field size
The first thing to consider when playing a hard bubble is the size of the field.
Here's what professional MTT player Darren Elias has to say about it:
In my experience, a larger field size usually means a shorter bubble period as more tables are played and more hands are dealt. This increases the chances of someone going all-in and flying out in the near future. Are we playing a 2,000-player tournament where 300 people will win prizes? Or do we participate in a small tournament where there are only 3 or 4 paid seats, and we sit at the same table?
These scenarios will play out in completely different ways. If we look at small tournaments or high roller tournaments, bubble play usually lasts a long time. A game with a short stack (10bb) in such a tournament is very different from the 10bb stack on the bubble of a large tournament, in which there are hundreds of prizes, and where with a similar stack you are still probably not at the very end.
Adjusting to how many players are left, you will be able to make optimal decisions on a hard bubble. As a general rule, you should be willing to take more risks by being a short stack player in a tournament with a small number of participants. But if it's a big event, you can skip the border giveaways and try to sneak into the prize area.
3. Factor # 2: Average Stack Size
Another factor you need to consider on a hard bubble is the average stack size (especially in tournaments with a small number of participants).
Here are Darren's thoughts on this:
The smaller the average stack, the more likely someone is to be knocked out on any of the following hands. Thus, if we have an average stack of 15bb compared to an average stack of 40bb, then there is a chance that the bubble will be shorter in a tournament with an average stack of 15bb.
Therefore, you should be prepared to stay afloat and make strong folds when the middle stack is short. But if you're sitting on a short stack yourself, and the middle stack is quite big, you'll most likely have to take a risk to get into the prizes. This is a less important factor in tournaments with a large number of participants, where the probability of short stacks is much higher. This implies the following factor.
4. Factor #3: Presence of microstacks
The amount of microstacks (5bb or less) has a big impact on how you should act during a tough bubble.
Here's what Darren says about it:
The presence of microstacks replaces the average stack in terms of importance. Are there microstacks with less than 2bb that will be forced to go all-in with either hand when the blinds reach them? We need to adjust, because the more such stacks in the tournament, the sooner they will be forced to go all-in. So if someone is on UTG with 2bb and goes all-in on the next hand, we should play more tight when we are short ourselves.
Another situation would be if a player with 2bb sits on the button and can fold as many as six more hands. And of course we should push harder having a big stack to put pressure on smaller stacks. Even if you don't see the status of each table, it's safe to assume that in most cases there will be players with super-small stacks in tournaments where more than 100 seats are paid out.
When there are multiple players with less than 2bb on a hard bubble, you should minimize the risk if you have a short stack. It is an absolute disaster to fly out in a borderline situation with a stack of 10bb when there are stacks in 2bb!
5. Factor # 4: Minimum Prize Amount
The fourth factor to consider on a hard bubble is the size of the minimum prize (i.e. the lowest payoff in the tournament). This factor should always be considered in terms of the number of buy-ins that can be beaten off by this prize, rather than the exact dollar amount. Some tournaments pay a minimum buy-in of 1.2x, while others pay a minimum buy-in of 3.5-4x. Thus, the larger the minimum prize in terms of the number of buy-ins, the more adjustments we should make to our game.
I think that both amateurs and professional players have difficulties when they are in tournaments from the top of their load. They play more secretly or make adjustments that they shouldn't because the prize is bigger and it matters more. We need to avoid thinking about this, and also remember that other players may be sensitive to the same circumstance. Think about how the size of the minimum prize can affect our opponent's strategy.
I will explain what is perhaps obvious:
When the minimum prize is greater than the whole buy-in, you should be less risk-averse. But if the minimum money is relatively small, you can take more risk, which can reward you with a larger stack. Awareness of this factor can help to exploit adversaries who do not adjust accordingly.
6. Conclusion
Playing in these challenging bubble spots can be stressful, but it can also be extremely entertaining and lucrative. If you keep these factors in mind and play them better than your opponents, you can start building larger stacks and making more serious dipranas. That's it for today!
