Translated with the help of AI. We apologize for any errors and would appreciate your help in correcting them.
Translated by order of the educational portal university.poker
Author: Nathan Williams, original source: blackrain79.com
Collecting flush draw in no-limit hold 'em is always a pleasure. When you manage to close the flush, it usually turns out to be a strong combination that often dominates the hands of opponents. However, it's not that simple. Many players have difficulty playing flush draw: either they do not earn enough on such hands, or, worse, they face a higher flush from the opponent. If you are familiar with such situations, do not worry — this guide will help you figure out how to correctly play flush draw and use it with maximum benefit!
1. Probability of collecting a flush
Flush is really considered a powerful combination, but this does not mean that it is worth mindlessly chasing every possible draw. Not all of them close, and in most cases, hope for a flush remains only hope.
Consider a typical situation: let's say you were given a suited hand, and the flop gave you a flush draw (that is, two cards of your suit are already on the table). However, even this scenario is not so common, since there are objectively more offsuited starting hands. In such a situation, you will have 9 outs, which gives a 35% chance to improve your hand to a flush on the turn and river.
Outs are cards that can strengthen your hand in the future. The more outs you have, the more likely you are to put together a strong combination.
But despite the seemingly good chances, in two cases out of three your flush draw will never close. This means that against the finished hand on the flush draw flop, the flush draw almost always remains an underdog. And the probability of collecting a flush on the flop itself is even lower: if you have a starting single-layer hand, the chance of getting a ready-made flush on the flop is only 1%.
2. A common mistake when playing flush draw: playing with questionable suited hands
Before deconstructing the flush draw strategy on the flop, it is important to pay attention to a common mistake that many inexperienced players make. It lies in the fact that they overestimate any suited cards and play too wide a range of hands, hoping for a random flush. Some recreational players go even further — they are ready to participate in the hand with almost ANY one-handed hand, hoping that they will be able to catch the flush on the post-flop.
Examples of weak suited hands:
Using such hands from late positions or a small blind is a serious mistake, especially if you play them the way many newcomers do. Usually, they simply collide with similar hands on the preflop, which leads to many problematic and disadvantageous situations on the postflop. As a result, they face difficult decisions, make new mistakes and lose even more money. This is a typical snowball effect: one incorrect action at an early stage of distribution leads to even more serious errors on subsequent streets, which in the end costs you much more. There are several good reasons why you should not play such hands on the preflop.
Suited garbage is still garbage
Yes, suited cards are more valuable than offsuited cards, but this does not mean that any two suited cards suddenly become playable. The problem is that even if you manage to collect a flush or flush draw, your hand may be dominant.
A dominate hand is a hand that almost always loses a similar combination, but with a stronger kicker.
- For example, if you decide to play J2s, you will find yourself in an unpleasant situation against any opponent with Jx, where his kicker will be stronger than yours.
Most hands do not fall into the flop
In No Limit Hold 'em, players miss the flop on two out of three occasions. Weak starting hands suffer even more from this, since they are initially less likely to make a competitive combination. Therefore, instead of hoping for luck, it is better to avoid playing with dubious suited cards and focus on really profitable hands. Even if you managed to catch the flop with one of the weak suited hands, most often it will be just a pair. And then the problem with the kicker pops up again. In such situations, your hand is regularly dominant, which in the long run leads to losses. Even if you collect a flush, there is always a risk that the opponent will have a stronger flush.
The second serious problem: the flush does not close as often as it seems.
Many players hope for a flush, playing dubious hands, but in fact the flush is going much less often than we would like. Much more often, instead of the finished combination, you will see a flush draw on the flop. The probability of catching a flush draw on the flop is approximately 11%. But even if this happens, it is important to understand that the draw to the river will not always close. And even when you are lucky, there is a high probability that the opponent's flush will be older.
Exceptions to the rules
It is worth noting that even weak suited hands can be playable in certain situations. For example, they can become a tool for styling blinds.
Let's say that at your table there are extremely tight оpponents who folds blinds 8–9 times out of 10. In such situations, you can expand the range and try to steal their blinds even with something like J2s or Q5s. As with all aspects of poker, context is crucial. If you play online poker and want to analyze the trends of rivals more accurately — for example, how often they stealing — you should think about poker software for collecting statistics. Holdem Manager 3, Hand2Note, and PokerTracker 4 are good options.
3. What to look for when playing flush draw in poker
In addition to the pot odds, it is important to consider the implied odds. Implied odds is the potential amount you can win if your combination ends up coming together. This factor plays a key role in the draw of draw, because in no-limit hold 'em, most draw do not close. Therefore, when you manage to strengthen, it is important that the winnings compensate for the risk.
How to calculate the pot odds
It is quite simple to calculate the pot odds: you need to divide the current pot size by the call amount to get the ratio (for example, 1 to 2 or 1 to 5). The pot's odds are accurate, but the assumed odds are more difficult because they depend on the opponent's actions. You cannot know in advance whether he will want to pay, and how much money he is ready to invest in the pot if your hand increases.
How to account for implied odds
The formula for calculating the assumed odds is more complicated than for the pot odds. This is not just an assessment of the effective stack and the calculation of the possible winnings.
By the way, the effective stack is the smallest stack among the participants in the hand, because you can not win more than the opponent. For example, if you have $300 in the stack, and your opponent has $100, then the effective stack is $100.
However, for a real assessment of the estimated chances, several factors need to be taken into account:
- How loose or secretly does the opponent play?
- Is he willing to pay bet on the late streets?
- How obvious will your flush be if it closes?
Implied odds is a tricky topic, but in general, if you play draw, you need to understand whether the potential reward is worth the risk you take.
4. Factors that increase the assumed implied odds
- Some conditions can greatly improve your perceived implied odds, turning even difficult giveaways into profitable ones.
Deep efficient stack
The more chips in the opponent's stack, the higher the potential reward if your flush draw closes. However, it is important to estimate not only the absolute size of the stack, but also its ratio to the bank — this is a key indicator, which is called SPR (Stack-to-Pot Ratio).
The SPR is the ratio of the effective stack size to the current pot. The lower the SPR, the more the player is tied to the pot and the more often he will be exposed with medium hands stack-off.
If the SPR is less than 3, оpponents will more often go to the end with a top pair or a strong draw. In such situations, it is more important to play ready-made hands, rather than chasing the flash. But if the SPR is high (for example, 10 or higher), the flush draw becomes more valuable. In this case, the potential profit overrides the risk, as the opponent can pay large bet if your combination closes. It is especially advantageous to play a flush draw if it can lead to a nuts combination — then you will be less likely to be dominated.
Sweepstakes example
- Effective stack: 100BB
- Format: 6-max cash
You are being handed out on SB 
. The recreational player limits with UTG, after which the tight-aggressive (tag) regular player makes an isolating raise of 4BB. You decide to 3 bet until 16BB. Limper discards the cards and TAG collides.
- Pot: 34BB
- Flop:
Your move? In this situation, the best solution would be a bet from half to 3/4 of the pot. Why?
- The SPR (stack to bank ratio) is about 2.5 — in such conditions, the stack is easily exposed on two streets.
- You have a nuts flush draw, which means that even if the opponent calls, you will have a significant equity.
- The semi-bluff allows you to pick up the pot right now, without having to drive to the flush.
- Tag opponent will not always pay for flush if your draw closes. So, it is more profitable to play aggressively in advance.
Can I play check-raise? Theoretically, yes, but there is a risk that the opponent will play the check afterwards, and you will give him a free card, missing the opportunity to put pressure. In most cases, the cbet here brings more EV than the passive line in the hope of catching a flush. After all, if an opponent defolds — you win without a showdown, and if he calls — you still have great potential on the following streets.
Amateurs and calling-station phones
The weaker your villain, the higher your implied odds.
Against recreational players, your prospects for selection are much better than against reg players who follow the game more closely. Phishes often tend to overcollate too wide a range, making them ideal opponents if you have a strong ready-made combination, such as a flush. An additional advantage is that they evaluate the hand in a vacuum, focusing on its absolute strength, rather than on the relative position in the hand. This means that the fish may not fold, even if the board is clearly dangerous, and, for example, call with the junior flush, top pair or even overpair, not realizing that it is already far behind.
If against reg players you have to think about the balance and how to get the extract value, then against the chips it is often enough to simply bet and take their chips. Weak players often do not take into account the strength of their hand in the context of the board, but evaluate it only in absolute terms. If they have a set, straight or weak flush, they are not afraid to continue paying, even if the board is clearly threatening. That's why it's easier to get extract value against fish when your flush draw closes. But against experienced reg players, the situation is more complicated. They notice the obvious closed combinations and will not just scatter the chips.
Aggressive opponents
Although in most cases flush draw is played aggressively, against hyper-aggressive players (maniacs) it is worth thinking about a different strategy. If the villain likes to barrel on all the streets, sometimes it is better not to bet yourself, but to let him continue to attack. This approach allows you to inflate the pot due to its bet and get the maximum in case of calling the flash.
Bottom line: you have better implied odds against loose and aggressive opponents than against tacit and passive ones.
5. Aggressive game with flush draw: maximize EV
When you act as a pre-flop aggressor, you have a great opportunity to set the tone by making a c-bet on the flop. Such bet often make a profit, especially if your hand has good equity — and flush draw is just from this category. Although you do not yet have a ready hand, the chances of gaining strength on the next streets are quite decent. This makes your bet a semi-bluff — that is, a bluff that is not devoid of potential for travel. A semi-bluff is much stronger than a pure bluff (when the only chance to win is to force the opponent to fold), because you always have a backup option: even if you are called, you still have a chance to collect a strong hand. The more powerful your draw, the more aggressive it should be. To understand the power of your potential combination, consider two key points.
Number of outs
The more outs you have, the higher the chances of improvement. For example, with a single-handed hand and two cards of the same suit on the flop, you have 9 outs — this is about a 35% chance of collecting a flush to the river.
Rule of Four
Fast way to estimate the probability of arrival is to multiply the number of outs by 4. This will give an approximate chance of gain to the river. Let's say you have 9 outs: 9 × 4 = 36% If you want to calculate the probability of gain on one particular street (for example, from the turn to the river), multiply by 2.
How strong draw do you collect?
It is important to consider not only the probability of gain, but also the final strength of the arm. If your draw does not lead to nuts, you should be careful — there may be inverse implied odds.
Danger of Reverse Estimated Odds
Imagine that you have a flush closing, but at the same time a more senior flush is possible for the opponent. In this case, instead of winning the pot, you can get into serious trouble and lose a large bet. Therefore, before an aggressive game with flush draw, assess not only your chances of reaching, but also the possible strength of the opponent's hands. Sometimes it's better to slow down if your flush might be vulnerable.
- Let's say you were handed out
, and the flop came out:
You are in a great situation — you have a nuts nuts flush draw, and you do not need to worry about the possible inverse of the estimated chances. Even if your flush comes together, the opponent could not have a stronger combination of the same type.
- Now suppose that you have
, and the board looks like this:
Flush draw
again, but now everything is not so rosy. Villain can easily end up with pocket cards of the same suit and collect a flush older than yours. In addition, there is a pair on the board, which makes more powerful combinations like full house or even quads possible.
Why the first situation is better
On the first board, the only real threat is a possible set for the opponent, who may reach the full house in the future. However, the probability of this is too small to be strongly guided by it. In the second case, everything is much more dangerous: the board is already paired, which increases the chances of a ready-made full-house for the opponent. In addition, your possible flush is far from nuts, which means that it may turn out to be beating.
How to play such hands
- On the first board, you can act aggressively:
you have not only nuts flush draw, but also two overcards. Any ace or king will also strengthen your hand, giving you additional opportunities to win. (overcards are pocket cards that are stronger than any card on the board. In this example, the ace and king are overcards to.) - In the second scenario, you should be more careful.
This does not mean that you need to immediately fold your hand — cbet can remain profitable, especially if you have a position, you are an aggressor and play against a weak opponent. However, to inflate the pot without nut draw is a dangerous undertaking.
If your opponent continues to show aggression in the late streets, this is an alarm signal. He sees the same board as you, which means that if his actions indicate big confidence, most likely, he has already collected a strong hand and is not afraid of possible arrivals. In such situations, it is better to slow down and think about the fold.
6. When to reset the flush draw
A flush is a strong combination, but having a flush draw doesn't mean you have to play it every hand. There are times when fold is the best solution. Let's take a look at these situations.
Insufficient pot odds
Sometimes it is mathematically unjustified to continue the play because you simply lack the pot's chances. This is especially true if you do not have good estimated chances — for example, when the opponent puts all-in, and you need to make a decision immediately. In such situations, fold is the only correct mathematical solution. Yes, giving up a hand in which you have already invested chips is not psychologically easy, but it is an important aspect of discipline in poker.
Remember: once the money has gone to the bank, it is pot no longer yours. Poker is not about “protecting investments” but about making decisions based on odds and probabilities. Sometimes that means fold ing your cards, even if you think you're already too deeply involved in the hand.
Example
- Effective Stacks: 80 BB
You get on the button and open with a 3x raise. The villain opponent from the small blind makes a 3-bet up to 12x and you call.
- Bank: 25 BB pot
- Flop:
The opponent instantly puts the villain all-in on 68 BB. Your decision? The only right move here is to fold. Why?
- You are offered the pot odds of approximately 1.4:1, but a minimum of 1.86:1 is required for a break-even call.
- You do not have a nutshell draw, so there may be inverse implied odds: even if your flush reaches, it may not be the strongest.
Simple mathematics says that the call in this situation is unprofitable.
When you don't have enough estimated chances
As we have already discussed, flush draw does not always close, which means that if you invest money in the pot, you need to compensate for the investment when the flush is collected. If your draw doesn't make it, and you don't have alternative ways to win a hand (for example, you can't effectively bluff that opponent), the best option is to just bluff.
There are two ways to win in poker:
- Force the opponent to fold.
- Gather the strongest hand.
If your opponent clearly does not intend to fold cards, and in the case of a flush, you are unlikely to be paid, there is no point in continuing to invest chips in the pot.
When you are already "pulling into the dead"
"Pull to the dead" means that even if your combination arrives, it will not help you win the hand, because the opponent already has a stronger hand. For example, if the opponent has already closed the senior flush or full-house, your arrival will not change the outcome of the distribution. The weaker your draw, the more carefully it should be played. In some cases, the right decision is simply not to get involved in the fight and save your stack.
Example
- Effective stack: 100 BB
You get 
on the button and open 2.5x. Villain on the BB calls.
- Pot: 5.5 BB
- Flop:
Villain checks. You bet 2.5 BB and the villain responds with 7.5 BB. What's your decision?
Here you need to play a pass fold. You have a flush draw, but it is quite weak, since there are already two — pair on the flush draw, and your opponent may have many stronger flush draws. More alarmingly, there is a Paired board on the flop, and even if the opponent does not have a stronger flush draw, he can assemble a full-house that will defeat you (on the current street or in the future). Inversely, the implied odds are too great to keep playing that hand.
7. Summary
Summing up, everything you need to know about the flush draw on a professional level, you can draw the following conclusions:
- For a profitable game with flush draw, you do not need to learn complex strategies — it is enough to avoid common mistakes that beginners often make.
- The first rule: poker is a game of probabilities, and most draw do not close. Flush draw is no exception. Therefore, if you decide to play flush draw, it is important to make sure that you pay back the investment when the hand is still collected, otherwise the risks will not be justified.
- Also avoid playing dubious suited hands on the preflop. These hands are more likely to create problems than make a profit, especially because of the backward assumed odds.
- To assess whether a flush draw can be played profitably, you need to understand how often it closes.
- Flush draw gathers 35% of the time for three streets. Compare this to the pot's odds to see if your call will be profitable in the long run.
- It is also important to calculate the estimated odds — this is the amount of money you can win if your flush draw is collected.
- The difference between the assumed chances and the usual ones is that their assessment requires more intuition and "sensations" about the situation. Here it is better to be conservative in the assessment.
- Don't forget about the inverse of the estimated odds unless your draw is nuts. This means how much money you can lose if your flush draw arrives, but it will not be strong enough to defeat the opponent.
When all these factors are against you, sometimes it is better to refuse to distribute at all.
Poker is not just about winning as much as possible. It's also about minimizing losses when you're in a bad situation.
Don't let the illusory hope of a powerful commute distract you from the math. Always make decisions based on probabilities. And please don't play trashy suited hands. Good luck at the tables!
